When will the New World Screwworm be eradicated in South America?
6
390Ṁ4392050
7%
2023-2025
12%
2026-2028
12%
2029-2031
12%
2032-2034
10%
2035-2037
10%
2038-2040
10%
2041-2043
10%
2044-2046
10%
2047-2049
5%
2050 or later
This market will resolve to the choice containing the year in which the New World Screwworm is eradicated from South America.
This market is cause agnostic; if it happens via gene drive, larvae irradiation, pesticide application, etc it will resolve yes.
I define "eradicated" as a documented reduction in screw worm infections by atleast 10000x compared to the current (2023) number of infections.
Please feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.
See this post for context: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JWuPdMaPiNy7AD3AX/potentially-actionable-opportunity-eliminating-the-new-world
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declare Dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease) as eradicated by 2030?
54% chance
Will malaria-carrying mosquitos be wiped out before the year 2030?
8% chance
Will New World screwworm (maggots that eat animals alive) be effectively eradicated from the wild by 2030?
14% chance
When will Guinea Worm Disease be eradicated?
2036
Will Guinea worm disease be eradicated before 2031?
56% chance