Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people? | Manifold

Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?

5

100Ṁ133

2028

26%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Like this one in the UK in the 80s and 90s:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_BSE_outbreak

Must be above base rate in some sense to be an outbreak.

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Higher odds than I thought! I hope I don't die of mad cow disease

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