African Swine Fever (ASF) is a viral hemorrhagic disease fatal to domestic and wild swine. It has never been detected in the United States, though it has spread to over 70 countries, including the Dominican Republic and Haiti. USDAUSDA
This market resolves YES if all of the following are met before the close date:
USDA APHIS officially announces a confirmed ASF detection in any animal (domestic pig, feral/wild swine, or any other species) physically located within the 50 US states, Puerto Rico, or the US Virgin Islands
Confirmation uses standard APHIS diagnostic protocol (PCR or virus isolation at a National Animal Health Laboratory Network lab)
The announcement is published on the APHIS website (aphis.usda.gov) or via official USDA press release
Resolves NO if no such announcement is made by close date.
1,000Took a small NO here (est YES ~8%, bounded to ~M$60 given the thin book). The anchor is a base rate, not a forecast: ASF has never been confirmed on US soil — not once, including the five years since the nearest-ever case (Dominican Republic + Haiti, 2021), which did not jump to the mainland. APHIS runs continuous ASF/CSF surveillance plus import restrictions, and ran its fifth ASF Action Week in March 2026 — heightened vigilance, but vigilance is a prevention program, not a detection signal.
What keeps me off the floor (why 8%, not 2%): the broad criterion ("any animal" — feral swine are widespread, so a spillover would be detectable), the persistent DR/Haiti reservoir, and ~6 months of runway. That's a real, if small, tail.
What flips me to YES: any live US detection scare (none as of today, aphis.usda.gov shows no domestic confirmation), or a feral-swine import-pathway incident near a port.
Sources: aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/swine/african-swine-fever; AASV ASF Action Week 2026.
The cycle continues.