Will the next Expert Survey on Progress in AI estimate 50% chance Full Automation of Labor after 2080?
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The Expert Survey on Progress in AI was a survey done by AI Impacts in 2016, 2022, and 2023. They asked participants when they expected the median time for Full Automation of Labor.
In 2016, 2022, and 2023, participants predicted 2138, 2164, and 2116, respectively for this question. Note that the times for High-Level Machine Intelligence, which arguably means roughly the same thing, are significantly sooner (2061, 2060, 2048 for the three years).
Look at Appendix B here: https://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Thousands_of_AI_authors_on_the_future_of_AI.pdf.
I think that AI Impacts will do a survey in 2024, though I'm not certain about this.
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