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MANIFOLD
Tehran Water Crisis Prop Bets
18
Ṁ1kṀ3k
Mar 31
86%
Will Tehran record less than 50mm of total rainfall from December 1st 2025 to March 31st 2026?
30%
Will the government announce plans to reduce agricultural water allocation?
16%
Will the government significantly raise residential water prices?
12%
Will the Iranian government officially announce daytime residential water rationing?
12%
Will the government issue a mandatory evacuation order for any district of Tehran?
5%
Will the president or Supreme Leader publicly admit governmental mismanagement caused the crisis?
3%
Will the Iranian government import water (or sign an agreement to) from other countries to supply over 50% of Tehran?
3%
Will the Iranian Parliament pass a bill to formally move the capital city from Tehran?

Context: https://www.csis.org/analysis/satellite-imagery-shows-tehrans-accelerating-water-crisis

Events that occur will resolve yes immediately. Any events that have not occurred by March 31st, 2026 will resolve No.

Questions will resolve according to official government statements, data from the World Meteorological Organization/other geological institutes, or reporting corroborated by multiple international news outlets.

A similar market (https://manifold.markets/AlexanderTheGreater/tehran-2025-water-crisis) exists, but has a much narrower focus. I will not bet on this market beyond setting the initial lines.

Market context
Iran
Water
Current Events
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@solarflare This is kind of a mess to resolve with the war. Is the plan to default to NO resolutions by default if no evidence is brought up for a YES resolution?

And what's the plan for the rainfall one? AFAIK there are no publically accessible sources for the actual rainfall data for February and March 2026, only model data and historical monthly averages. WMO doesn't even show forecasts for Tehran. For a while there was some data from IRIMO, but the site seems to have fully disappeared with the current war.

First option should probably be December 2025-March 2026. Not December 2026- March 2026.

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