Will we see an increased premium put on siloed/private online socialization by the end of 2027?
25
74
490
2028
63%
chance

Prediction #3 in my "Great Logging Off" market

Meta-market:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/how-many-of-my-predictions-in-marke-089c96830000?groupId=KgzUh68PEIltJSzCnmF2

Blog post:
https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ai-markets-for-lemons-and-the-great-logging-off

This resolves YES, if, by the end of 2027, in my sole opinion:

There is a SIGNIFICANT movement of people from "open" social networks to private and semi-private spaces. E.g., less facebook and twitter and instagram, more discord (semi-private and/or siloed) and group chats (private). Offline socialization will be handled by a separate market.

Dec 27, 12:14pm: Will we see an increased premium put on private online socialization by 2027? → Will we see an increased premium put on private online socialization by the end of 2027?

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@LarsDoucet if totall DAU/MAU is up, but percentage of total internet DAU/MAU is down (compared to 2023 figures), would that be yes or no?

@LarsDoucet - I'm assuming here you mean "increase in total number, and also increase in percentage", similarly to here? https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-we-see-an-increase-in-onlineco#mBNU9oPmGhU440ekMsUR

predicts YES

@MattCWilson This one’s about market share, so no. Percentage is enough. If hypothetically, absolute total internet users goes way down, but what’s left of them migrates proportionally to the private networks, this resolves yes. In practice I don’t see how that happens without absolute number of private network numbers going up, but just a significant shift in relative market share between the categories is enough.

@LarsDoucet Got it. And, pardon the question stream: suppose a good chunk of TickTwitFaceSnaptagram users switch to Mastodon or analogs. Are those "siloed/private"?

predicts YES

@MattCWilson There was some conversation down thread about whether Reddit properly counts as “semi-private” given r/all, etc. I wound up removing it but left discord, because you have to join each discord community separately and although some are “open access” there is more resistance there, and each CAN be locked down to an arbitrary degree. Mastodon feels similar in UX structure to me? Even more so given it’s physical servers are decentralized. So I would say yes.

@LarsDoucet Agreed on that. Mastodon feels "siloed, but potentially incidentally public" in a way similar to Discord. Probably one or two notches less "potentially public," even.

I don't think reddit is semi-private, having used it a lot. It's anonymous, but significantly less closed-off than even twitter or instagram, because of the focus on subreddits, r/all, etc.

@jacksonpolack I'll change the definition to "siloed" then. The emphasis is that you're not talking to the entire world at once, all in one place, but rather smaller communities at once.

I don't think that's quite right either - a decent number of reddit posts are on large subreddits you'd expect to show up on r/all, which are similar to large instagram accounts. see https://old.reddit.com/r/all/new/ . Twitter communities are similar to reddit in that way - an econtwitter resident might spend most of their time in econtwitter, a 'relationship and celebs twitter' person might spend their time browsing and retweeting 10k like posts, similar to how someone might spend all their time in r/somesmallcity and another might browse a lot of default subs.

discord is definitely much more 'private' - lots of discords are just for friend groups and private

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@jacksonpolack I think I disagree in a narrow pedantic way but I don't think it's worth arguing about, for the sake of the market's clarity I'll just delete the reference to reddit.