Prediction #6 in my "Great Logging Off" market
Blog post:
https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ai-markets-for-lemons-and-the-great-logging-off
This resolves YES, if, by the end of 2027, in my sole opinion:
Societies that, compared to overall average American society at large, prioritize family, community, regular face-to-face human interaction, strong social support networks, and especially those that have a built-in system for helping young people find spouses and which support them in raising families, are generally doing better than those that don't.
I'll look to various metrics that judge the following:
Population growth
Happiness / well-being
Health/disease
Economic success
As one further condition, I will need to see evidence that shows that the MOST online societies have worse overall outcomes (controlling for income/education/etc).
Note that this market isn't testing whether extreme neo-luddites outcompete everybody else -- the spirit of the market resolution is just whether being terminally online, and increasingly so, turns out to be bad for you.
Dec 27, 2:14pm: Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies? → Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?
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