Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027?

1.2kṀ2960

2028

37%

chance

ALL

Prediction #4 in my "Great Logging Off" market

Meta-market:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/how-many-of-my-predictions-in-marke-089c96830000?groupId=KgzUh68PEIltJSzCnmF2

Blog post:
https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ai-markets-for-lemons-and-the-great-logging-off

This resolves YES, if, by the end of 2027, in my sole opinion:

There is EITHER a measurable and significant increase in offline socialization and traditional social face-to-face institutions (e.g., churches, bowling leagues, heck even going to bars and dance halls counts), OR, a significant increase in the intensity and number of hours of attendance of offline social institutions by those currently attending, even if overal attendance doesn't rise.

Dec 27, 12:14pm: ~~Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by 2027?~~ → Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027?

The Great Logging Off

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will we see an increased premium put on siloed/private online socialization by the end of 2027?

64% chance

Which social media platforms will have an increase in harassment in 2024-2025, among Americans?

Will we see an increase in online/computer addiction by the end of 2027?

87% chance

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

50% chance

By EOY 2025, will I notice a trend of people I follow on X sharing their betting positions more than they do now?

50% chance

Will we see more "verified human" accounts + increased platform surveillance by the end of 2027?

90% chance

Will I be scammed out of at least $100 by the end of 2025?

13% chance

Will online video piracy go up in 2024 compared to 2023?

84% chance

Will I experience financial loss due to identity theft by end of 2027?

8% chance

Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?

Sort by:

Lars I don't think you should bet on your own markets that are not third party validated anymore given recent events on manifold, you are the largest yes holder not a good look.

predictedYES

@PatrickDelaney what recent events?

If you are alleging that I have resolved any markets unfairly you are more than welcome to point to any such incidents. I care a lot more about my reputation than I do fake internet points.

FWIW I asked the community about this question earlier and most people seem fine with it:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/is-it-acceptable-for-a-market-maker
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/is-it-acceptable-for-a-market-maker-06a71baaf65c

predictedNO

@LarsDoucet Wales vs. Minnows. Yes, I know you did, thank you for that - I answered and was in support of it back then but I have changed my mind. Here is my comment on your linked market. https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/is-it-acceptable-for-a-market-maker#fGFf9ummPF68YHgfQm4S

If anything people will retreat more online. Think of generation alpha being 20 years old having been radicalized to be permanently in front of a screen since birth.

predictedNO

@PatrickDelaney if you are betting on this market you are literally online not in a meat space so it's hypocritical to vote yes.

@LarsDoucet if people are hanging out in meatspaces but doing activities enhanced by internet-attached AR, is that a yes or a no? 😄 (I know, I’m a PITA 🤣)

predictedYES

@MattCWilson I don't think resolution is going to turn on this, but if they're hanging out face to face in the same physical location, and the alternative is they would be hanging out separately mediated through a screen, sure.