Will there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?

1kṀ3764

2028

14%

chance

ALL

Fred Harrison has a theory called the "18 year land cycle", and claims to have correctly predicted the housing crash in 2008 and one in the 1990s:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/property/article-12446057/Why-house-prices-set-soar-two-years-CRASH-claims-expert-accurately-predicted-property-market-collapse-2008-1990s.html

He's currently predicting we'll see a major real estate crash in 2026.

This market resolves YES if three conditions are held:

Real estate prices peak in 2026
Real estate prices at the end of 2026 are below the peak
Real estate prices by the end of 2027 have declined by at least 15% relative to the 2026 peak

The index we will use to define "real estate prices" is case-shiller:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

When the next house price crash is likely to hit, according to expert

As mortgage rates rocket to a two-decade high and buyers face the least affordable market in recent memory, alarm bells have been ringing over an imminent house price crash.

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A full-on crash in 2026 feels unlikely unless something major breaks in the economy. Prices might cool off a bit once more people finally decide to sell and mortgage rates settle down. Right now inventory is still super tight, which keeps things from falling too fast. If anything, it looks more like a slow deflate than a cliff-dive. But hey, it’s real estate, people have been calling for a crash every year since 2012, so anything’s possible.