Resolution criteria

• Resolves to the calendar date of the S&P 500’s last all‑time closing high (price index) immediately preceding the next “bubble burst,” defined as a ≥35% peak‑to‑trough decline in the S&P 500 closing level that is reached within 18 months and occurs in a window spanning from 6 months before to 12 months after the official start month of the next U.S. recession as dated by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee. The qualifying peak date is the resolution date. Data sources: NBER recession dates and announcements; S&P 500 daily close on FRED. (nber.org)

• Measurement details: use the S&P 500 price index daily close (no dividends), peak and trough measured on closing values, and the drawdown threshold is calculated as (trough_close − peak_close) / peak_close ≤ −35% within 18 months of the peak. If multiple peaks satisfy the criteria for the same recession window, resolve to the earliest qualifying peak date. If no NBER‑dated recession occurs, this market remains open until one does. (fred.stlouisfed.org)

Background

• The NBER is the widely used arbiter of U.S. recession dates; it identifies peaks and troughs retrospectively via a committee process and publishes announcements and a maintained chronology. (nber.org)

• NBER announcements are made with a lag (historically averaging months), so resolution may occur well after the actual peak and market decline. (stlouisfed.org)

• The S&P 500 is the standard benchmark for large‑cap U.S. equities and is available as a daily closing series via FRED for verification. (fred.stlouisfed.org)

Considerations

• This market ties “big economic bubble” to a large equity bust coincident with an NBER‑dated recession to avoid counting isolated asset selloffs (e.g., crypto‑only or sector‑specific crashes) as economy‑wide bubbles. (nber.org)

• Case‑Shiller (housing) and other asset indices are not part of the trigger; they can inform traders but won’t determine resolution. For housing context, see the national Case‑Shiller series on FRED. (fred.stlouisfed.org)

• If NBER later revises its recession chronology or issues clarifications, the most recent official NBER posting at the time of market resolution governs. (nber.org)