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MANIFOLD
Share of world population living in autocracies in V-Dem's 2030 report?
3
Ṁ705Ṁ170
2030
59.9 %
expected
3%
0 - 9.9%
7%
10 - 19.9%
7%
20 - 29.9%
7%
30 - 39.9%
7%
40 - 49.9%
11%
50 - 59.9%
12%
60 - 69.9%
28%
70 - 79.9%
12%
80 - 89.9%
7%
90 - 100%

Criteria:

Resolves by "share of the world population living in autocracies" in V-Dem's Democracy Report.

Baseline

2025 baseline: V-Dem's 2026 report (covering 2025) found 74% of the world population. In 2005 the figure was 50%.

Note

If V-Dem changes its method, I'll use the figure as published, and if no report exists for this year, the latest V-Dem dataset.

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This is disproportionately affected by the outcome of the 2029 Indian election, I think? V-Dem considers the BJP government an electoral autocracy, so if they lose control it might shift the number downward a lot due to India's massive population

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