Currently, the Georgian authorities have full control over the territory of the country except for the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are de facto partially recognized states.
This bet will be resolved as NO if before December 31, 2030 one of the following conditions is met:
1. As a result of a civil war, an external intervention or an administrative mutiny without blood, the central Georgian authorities will lose control over a region that completely contains at least one town with a population of more than 30 thousand people in any year of the 21st century, and will fail to regain at least partial control over the city within one month countinously.
2. The Georgian authorities will officially recognize the independence of Abkhazia or South Ossetia or will recognize them as part of another state.
For clarity:
- This issue will be resolved as NO if the Georgian authorities will regain full control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but lose control over another region with town (including a peaceful exchange of territories).
- If one of the conditions is met, we resolve the bet as a NO and close it. If the Georgian authorities will regain control of the lost region after one month, this does not change the outcome of the bet.
- If yet several states of the world recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, this will not be regarded as a change in the integrity of Georgia - this is still YES.
- If the Georgian authorities will lose control over a region in December 2030, we wait yet one month after that to see how the situation will be resolved.