Will there be a state introduced or removed from the union by 2030?

1kṀ1911

2030

16%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if at any point there are 49 or 51 states in the United States of America by Jan 1st 2030. A state being introduced and a state being removed at the same time would still resolve YES even though there would still be 50. Resolves Yes in the case of the absolute collapse of the US

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Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2030?

9% chance

Will any US state secede before 2030?

10% chance

Will a US state attempt to leave the union by 2100?

61% chance

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

47% chance

Will there be a 51st state by the end of 2034?

27% chance

Will the US admit a new state by 2030?

18% chance

Will the United States have a number of states other than 50 before 2030?

11% chance

Will there be multiple new US states by the end of 2030?

10% chance

Will any US places successfully change states by 2030?

14% chance

Will there stop being 50 states in the USA before 2032?

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If Trump wins, secessionist movements along the Pacific Coast will at least gain steam. Although they may end up fractured.

Also western Oregon may just say “Fine then Eastern Oregon get lost finally, if you love Idaho so much go join it, bye Felicia, oh and Bend isn’t coming along” — uncertain all of Idaho wants it.

Crazy talk maybe, but California and Seattle are going to get pretty tired of subsidizing Mississippi and Alabama, plus Texas judiciary nationwide effects, in any version of Trump II.

Some Relevant Markets

https://manifold.markets/tw/will-puerto-rico-become-a-state-by (2030 - wont come up in the embeded market search for whatever reason)

Adding a state (DC or Puerto Rico) is only possible if Democrats win a large majority in the house and senate and win the presidency. Winning the senate at all will be tough for them in the next seven years, let alone with a large majority.

A state leaving the union or the US collapsing is negligible chance.