will twitter login come back up for more than an hour before market close?
14
30
270
resolved Dec 29
Resolved
YES

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bought Ṁ50 of YES

It's up from here.

bought Ṁ114 of YES

I'm back in.

bought Ṁ15 of YES

looks like it's back up for me and on downdetector. now let's see if it stays up.

predicted YES

@L (I bought $15 of yes quite a while before it actually did, btw. I was mostly betting towards 70%ish tbh)

predicted NO

@L still down for me... this is a worse operationalization than initially appeared: If it works for anyone, it looks falsified, even if it's still down for most people. Inevitably, when the strain on twitter decreases and it starts working again as it must have in testnets, most people will not be able to log in for they will be asleep.

predicted NO

@L Okay, working.

To be clear, throughout the evening, logging out (ie., specifically, clicking that button) and logging back in worked for me, and then Twitter seemed to be fine-ish at least for a while (until I opened a new Twitter tab – one surefire failure point).

bought Ṁ35 of NO

I immediately regretted my no vote but in the spirit of twitter (I realize, probably) deliberately leaving a regression in place for for most of the day I will also leave my no bet in place.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

open to input to how to measure uptime precisely; my default measurement is 1. can I get in? no -> still down. can I get in? yes -> check if the rate of down reports on downdetector has fallen dramatically enough. Input welcome if you can think of something that is reliably more precise than this; I will use the most precise resolution method proposed, according to my judgement about which is most precise.

predicted NO

@L I am not tightly monitoring whether twitter is up, hence I expect to primarily look for the time on downdetector.