closes two months after a large spike in death rate of trans people in the usa. resolves five years after that, to allow time for a quorum of traders to verify data collection process.
I will be asking many follow-up markets about specific game trees near this outcome. markets will be resolved by [not yet decided consensus process] of comments on traders's measurement processes and data collection methods. this is a sensitive topic and it is important that we actually discuss what actually happened, because measurement of death toll after large death events takes time to become confident of; initial estimates are typically wrong, and what this question hopes to predict is how many actually die, not how many appear to have at first.
Nov 8, 11:06pm: if there is a month on which more than one in thirty trans people die of any cause, will there be a spike the same or following month of how many followers of trump die of any cause? → if there is a month on which more than one in thirty trans people die of any cause, how much of a spike will there be the same or following month of how many followers of trump die of any cause?
Nov 8, 11:37pm: if there is a month on which more than one in thirty trans people die of any cause, how much of a spike will there be the same or following month of how many followers of trump die of any cause? → if there is a month on which more than 1-in-30 trans people die of any cause, how-many-in-30 followers of trump will die of any cause the same or following month?
1,000People are also trading
@L Slightly, but I still have no idea how to bet. What units are you using? This market started at "3". 3 what? Saying that the spike will be of magnitude "3" is not a useful statement, as there are all sorts of things that could mean. 3 more Trump supporters die than in previous months? The death rate of Trump supporters increases by a factor of 3 over the previous month? The death rate of Trump supports will be 3 times higher than the death rate of trans people? What is the actual process you will be using to take a certain source of real-world data and turn it into a resolution?
@L "A certain source of real-world data" is Isaac's diplomatic way of asking: How on earth will you possibly answer this question?
How many trans people are there? (I'm guessing a lot of trans people don't go around announcing they are trans. Attempting to collect these data would probably be contentious. Oh look:
https://www.census.gov/library/working-papers/2017/adrm/rsm2017-12.html
the Census Bureau figured out it's contentious, and [as of 2017] they are trying to figure out what to do about it.)
How many of them died last month?
How many followers of Trump died last month?
