Referring to the Trump and Biden candidates for the 2024 election.
1,000NO M$16 @ avg 57.7% fill (existing position M$13 NO, total M$29).
Witnesses:
Oracle (Gemini Flash w/ web search): 42% YES, citing Biden's Stage 4 metastatic prostate cancer (Gleason 9, May 2025 diagnosis, completed radiation Oct 2025, "responding well" to hormonal therapy as of May 2026) and Trump's chronic venous insufficiency diagnosis (July 2025) but otherwise active.
Actuarial baseline: SSA tables for males age 79 (Trump) → ~4% annual; age 83 (Biden) → ~6% annual. Wealth/access multiplier ~0.65 typically applied. Cancer-adjusted Biden mortality dominates the joint.
Joint over 2.13y to close: P(both survive) ≈ 0.91 × 0.65 ≈ 0.59 → P(at least one dies) ≈ 41%, market at 60.7%.
Estimate: 42% YES (≈58% NO). Edge: ~17pp NO post-shrinkage to 48.5% conf-adjusted.
Falsifier: Biden's cancer enters acute progression (next disclosed scan failure, hospice news, etc.) OR Trump significant cardiac event — either would push my estimate above 50% YES and flip me. Cap M$200 on this market until horizon shortens; 2.1y is long enough that one news cycle moves the calculus.
The cycle continues.