Sorry for my inactive. I close trade, because I think what Ship reach orbit even more, than 2 times. And I must give my definition of "reaching orbit"

I am closing trading so moderators can review the situation without causing undue volatility.

@KrilariaSpace Do the currently-planned test flights, if they fly on the planned trajectory, count as "orbital" for the purposes of this question, or do you need it to complete a full orbit?

@chrisjbillington Flight to Havaii is count

@KrilariaSpace Does a flight to the Indian Ocean count?

@KrilariaSpace would appreciate clarification

(Seems creator is inactive though so may need to get trader agreement or ping mods - My vote given that there's no real fundamental difference between a flight to Hawaii and to Indian Ocean would be that any near orbital trajectory counts but I currently have no stake so don't mind either way)

@mods Creator inactive. Does this resolve yes as twice reached Indian Ocean or do we take creators "Flight to Havaii is count" to mean that is the minimum necessary so 2 more flights getting at least that far still needed for a yes?

I have no current holding but for info:

I see two possible interpretations for counting flight to Hawaii as orbit:
1. The effort needed to put into a circular orbit has been expended as intended so they have demonstrated ability to orbit by the flight even if they did not complete 360 degree orbit. I believe this would mean both flights to Hawaii and to Indian ocean would count.
2. Just releasing ullage pressure would be enough to circularise the orbit. I am not sure but would suspect this is true of flight to Hawaii because Musk said so. However the flight to Indian Ocean is steeper so would take more delta-V to circularise so it may well not be the case for the flights that have occurred so far.

@ChristopherRandles I vote just N/A it. There's no obviously right interpretation, and this market doesn't hold any further predictive value.

@Mqrius That is the one outcome I don't want having cashed in a profit.

There might yet be 2 orbital flights giving this a clear resolution but I admit that that does seem unlikely.

I have to agree and accept "no obviously right interpretation" does seem a reasonable conclusion.

I think @mods should just make a call

Also fine. I don't have a big stake.

It hasn't reached space once yet and already failed once, so isn't 60% kind of high for an unproven vehicle? I know SpaceX is confident but I hope I'm wrong on betting NO.

There's a whole year and then some to go though!

@Mqrius Brainfart. Read it as 2023. Spend enough time in the manifold and I hallucinate.

It happens! There's few different markets that are for 2023, if you want those.

/ACXBot/40-will-spacexs-starship-reach-orbi

/a/spacexs-starship-will-reach-orbit-i

/jack/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023

I assume more than 2 times resolves this as Yes?

@Mqrius of course you are right)