SpaceX’s Starship will reach orbit [in 2023]
resolved Dec 30

This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 70% probability.

Starship, the new reusable spacecraft being developed by SpaceX, has been in the works for roughly a decade now. While the company has signaled that the next step is an uncrewed test flight reaching Earth orbit, that project has recently seen some delays. On November 1, industry news sites were reporting that the craft’s first orbital launch would come in December, but by December it was clear the launch wouldn’t come until 2023 at the earliest.

But smart observers are still optimistic. “Based on a couple of conversations, I think SpaceX has a reasonable chance of making Starship’s orbital launch during the first quarter of 2023,” Ars Technica’s Eric Berger wrote on December 9. More to the point, delays, which are pretty common with SpaceX and spaceflight generally, sometimes are a sign of caution, which means the actual launch attempt has better odds.

Starship is a totally new system, but SpaceX has an enviable track record with its other rockets: a 99 percent success rate on nearly 200 launches. Most of the drama with Falcon launches these days has to do with whether SpaceX also successfully lands the reusable first-stage booster without damage. The odds of a failure are higher in an early-stage program like Starship — and crewed launches like the shuttle operate under even more stringent safety standards — but SpaceX’s track record gives me hope.

I put the odds that SpaceX will attempt a launch in 2023 at around 90 percent. If it attempts a launch, I put odds of success at some point in 2023 (if not necessarily in the first attempt) around 80 percent. That’s lower than its 99 percent success rate for the Falcon rockets, but fair given the newness and relative complexity of the system. 90 percent times 80 percent gets us around 70 percent odds that a launch succeeds in 2023.


Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

Yes, there's a strong possibility because Musk is already in the 2nd testing phase and the way Space X has progressed in their previous missions there is a strong possibility of success of reaching orbit in 2023. They are supposed to launch this in mid-November and since this is a second test, they as the most likely prepared to make it happen this time. But at the end of the day we have to wait and find out if this is going to be a successful mission or not.

But still I ll take a bet on SpaceX for its past achievements, success, and track records. Also, I would like to take bet on the industrious founder, Musk, who has previously dedicated his life to making things happen as the founder of this and various other companies.
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bought Ṁ1,230 of NO

Whoever says yes is cought in wishful thinking

bought Ṁ10 of YES

SpaceX's suborbital flight plan for the first flight wouldn't resolve this yes, right?

Not clear, I don't know if they intend to follow Vox's resolution on this. I suppose not because then we'd have to wait till the end of the year. So it's up to @a whether this counts or not.

predicted YES

@Mqrius I will resolve this according to Vox's judgment unless there's a clear consensus that it's definitely happened.

bought Ṁ120 of YES

@a I suspect Vox is going to count it. I can't imagine them reviewing the predictions and declaring that one wrong over a technicality.

@chrisjbillington I just don't feel very interested betting on vox rather than on the flight outcome, myself

predicted NO

@Mqrius Yep that was my mistake in getting on this market. I thought the two orbit markers were proxies for eachother

bought Ṁ0 of YES

I have a better market that avoids this problem:

If anyone thinks there's a decent chance of Starship reaching space but not reaching its planned trajectory, we could open another question on that, but I'm not sure what the planned trajectory is - anyone have a link?

bought Ṁ10 of YES
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bought Ṁ3,265 NO from 30% to 28%
predicted YES
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bought Ṁ25 NO at 25%

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