Nate Soares (@so8res) will wager at least 9k in mana (roughly equally distributed) across the following predictions.

I've been trying to get feedback from folks like Yudkowsky, Soares, Hanson, Yampolskiy, Hillis, Goertzle, Russell, Miles, Tegmark, Bostrom, Chalmers and literally 100s of other researchers for over a decade to share gofai work that I think could scale decentralized interpretable collective intelligence fast enough to beat ML to the punch. It's infohazardous because it makes ML (and the trillions of dollars of oil that feed it) obsolete.

I went through a lot of financial hardship to attend lessonline and manifest last year. It was worth it. I wish I could be there again this year but I can't afford it.

At the end of the day, all I really want is for folks like Nate to engage with my claims so I understand their opinion. This prediction is an attempt to gift Nate 10k in mana for the purposes of wagering that gift across several predictions I've created. I'm trying to buy his opinion. If he bets in my markets, I can discern his opinion on the topics I am trying to query. I'm trying to pay him to take a survey because I believe that's the most effectively altruistic thing I can do.

I'm a big fan of Nate and share many of his concerns about the future. I respect his priors. I'm hoping he will take this mana (which I will wager on this prediction to resolve no) and use it to share his opinion by wagering across the predictions I've listed below. I'm trying to use the market to perform a transaction. I appreciate any help bringing this opportunity to his attention.

I will post the 10k as a limit order, but if he'd like me to instead send it directly to him, I'd be happy to do that to prevent others from manipulating the intended transaction.

This will resolve yes if he makes an earnest attempt.

It will resolve no if no attempt is made by end of year.

Thanks.

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/who-are-you-aligned-with?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/what-is-the-most-valuable-propositi?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-eliezer-charitably-reviewed-my-w?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-proposition-will-be-denied?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/what-will-i-believe-is-the-most-imp?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-source-of-truth-will-be-unive?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/which-will-be-voted-the-most-import?r=S3JhbnR6

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-a-friendly-ai-takes-control-of-h?r=S3JhbnR6