Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if, before January 14, 2026, either:
The United States completes a purchase or acquisition of Greenland through a binding legal agreement with Denmark or Greenland's government, OR
The United States conducts a military invasion or occupation of Greenland
Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the U.S. State Department, Danish government, or Greenlandic government, or credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.). Any military action would be immediately verifiable through news coverage and official statements.
The market resolves NO if neither a purchase agreement nor military action occurs by the deadline.
Background
Trump has stated the United States needs Greenland for its "national security" and appointed Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry as special envoy to Greenland in December 2025. Trump has refused to rule out the use of military force to seize control. Greenland has a population of 57,000 people and has been part of the Kingdom of Denmark since 1721 and is a self-governing territory that gained autonomy in 1979.
Greenland is rich in key critical minerals used in high-tech sectors. Denmark and many other European nations have steadfastly rejected Trump's demands, with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stating "The U.S. has no right to annex any of the three nations in the Danish kingdom".
Considerations
A professor at the Royal Danish Defence College said while Trump is "clearly serious" about his interest in Greenland, it is unlikely he would try to take it by force. Trump's threats may be designed to throw Denmark and Greenland off balance as a prelude to negotiation, and in no case is the United States likely to start wars against allies and friends, as Trump would own the consequences including hostile populations under occupation and a ruined NATO alliance system.
1,000