[Metaculus] Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?
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2030
7%
chance

Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question would resolve positively if OpenAI posts on its website that it has achieved AGI within 30 days after GPT-5's release. If OpenAI lists this on its website before the release of GPT-5, the question would also resolve positively. Furthermore, this question would resolve positively if any member of the OpenAI leadership claims (on the record) that OpenAI has achieved AGI with GPT-5 within 30 days after the release of GPT-5 (before the release would also count).

If GPT-5 does not launch before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguously.


This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.

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