US state/federal regulatory apparatus takes another action against Polymarket before January 1, 2026
Basic
1
50
2026
48%
chance

Any of the SEC, CFTC, FTC, any state Attorney General, announces either a lawsuit against Polymarket, or fines Polymarket, or announces a settlement with Polymarket, or bans US customers - anything where Polymarket must respond to a court case, or has its operations constrained in some way.

I am aware the CFTC entered a judgment against Polymarket in 2022, but it appears that they are still accepting money from US customers to bet on US elections.

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