Will Polymarket be fined by U.S. government regulatory agencies in 2026?

This question's timeframe ET zone, 1 jan - 31 dec 2026 including. What is the likelihood that Polymarket - any us or global - prediction-market platform - may face financial penalties from U.S. regulatory bodies such as the CFTC, SEC, or other USA federal agencies in the year 2026.

Includes compliance, market manipulation, derivatives classification, user access controls, Know-Your-Customer/AML requirements, or other legal obligations that may put the platform under fines.

The goal is to bet on whether ongoing or future regulatory developments could lead to enforcement actions or fines against the company.