When will the CFTC take action against Polymarket?
10
1kṀ1263
2030
1%
2024
35%
2025
24%
2026
13%
2027
12%
2028
17%
2029
17%
Not by end of 2029/never

This must be of such importance as: a fine, a lawsuit, and open to other suggestions.

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I'm a little confused by this. The CFTC took action against Polymarket in January of 2022.

@Domer you never know when the empire will strike back

Should the probabilities sum to 1 if this market is efficiently priced?

@NoaNabeshima This isn't just a 'next' take action, they could take action against polymarket multiple times

People are also trading

Will Polymarket get investigated by the CFTC again before 2027?
40% chance
US state/federal regulatory apparatus takes another action against Polymarket before January 1, 2026
24% chance
Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold Markets for transactions involving the exchange of mana by 2030?
27% chance
Will Polymarket take more steps to verify that US citizens are not trading on their website before January 1, 2026?
37% chance
Will the CFTC file regulatory action against Manifold because of sweepstakes before the end of 2025?
3% chance
Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?
When will Polymarket start charging a fee?
When will Polymarket introduce fees?
5/11/27
When will a major new policy on prediction markets be released by CFTC?
Polymarket launches in U.S. by when?
11/25/25
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