If both become illegal but you can still very easily bet on them through VPNs if you pretend you're from a random country where there are no regulations, that still resolves YES.
Before 2030 = before 01/01/2030 midnight UTC.
If ANY US citizen can bet on BOTH these platforms without using a VPN and whilst being located IN the US, this resolves NO.
Update 2026-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To resolve NO, any US citizen permitted to bet on both platforms must not need to meet criteria other than a reasonable age limit.
Special status (such as being in Congress) or extraordinary hoops will not satisfy the criteria for a NO resolution.
Update 2026-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If real money trading is replaced by play money that is convertible to real money in a roundabout way:
Resolves YES if the change was due to a government order.
Resolves NO if the change was due to a failed business model.
1,000People are also trading
@Quroe If ANY US citizen can bet on BOTH these platforms without using a VPN and whilst being located IN the US, this resolves NO.
@JasonMendoza2008 What if you have to jump through more hoops beyond a KYC verification? Like, to take it to an extreme level that will probably not be real, what if prediction markets were banned for everybody except people in Congress?
@Quroe "What if you have to jump through more hoops beyond a KYC verification? Like, to take it to an extreme level that will probably not be real, what if prediction markets were banned for everybody except people in Congress?" That person that CAN bet on BOTH should not need to show anything apart from being above a certain age (any reasonable age, like above 100 years old doesn't count) to trade.
@Quroe "What if real money trading on these prediction market sites no longer worked, but you could only trade with some other play money currency on them that would be convertible back to real money by some roundabout way?" Then it depends on whether the business model failed (resolves NO) or the government ordered real money to be removed (resolves YES)
@Quroe "What if these sites magically turned into Metaculus overnight?" I don't understand what that means.
@JasonMendoza2008 What if the sites keep the same names, but how they operate becomes so radically different that they aren't prediction markets anymore?