Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Keir Starmer resigns from his position as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom explicitly due to the outcome of a parliamentary vote on the proposed welfare reform bill. The resignation must be directly attributed to the defeat or significant opposition encountered during the vote on this specific legislation. Official announcements from the UK government or reputable news organizations will serve as the primary sources for resolution.

Background

As of June 24, 2025, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is facing substantial opposition within his own Labour Party regarding proposed welfare reforms. Over 100 Labour MPs have expressed intent to block the welfare reform bill, arguing that it inadequately supports disabled individuals and those with long-term health conditions. The proposed reforms aim to reduce the welfare budget by over £5 billion by 2029/30, addressing projected increases in welfare costs. Critics contend that these cuts could harm vulnerable populations. A vote on the bill is scheduled for the following week, and if the opposition's amendment is accepted and passed, it could derail the legislation. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• Internal Party Dynamics: The significant rebellion within the Labour Party highlights internal divisions that could impact the passage of the welfare reform bill and, consequently, Starmer's leadership.

• Legislative Process: The outcome of the upcoming parliamentary vote is pivotal. A defeat or substantial opposition to the welfare reform bill could lead to political repercussions for the Prime Minister.

• Public and Political Pressure: Beyond internal party dissent, public opinion and pressure from advocacy groups may influence the government's stance on welfare reforms and Starmer's position.