Who will be the next UK Prime Minister after Keir Starmer?

165

Ṁ2.9kṀ81k

resolved Jul 20

100%99.0%

Andy Burnham

0.0%

Rachel Reeves

0.1%

Angela Rayner

0.0%

Yvette Cooper

0.0%

David Lammy

0.0%

Ed Davey

0.0%

Nigel Farage

0.0%

Kemi Badenoch

0.0%

Jeremy Hunt

0.0%

Rishi Sunak

0.0%

Wes Streeting

0.0%

Suella Braverman

0.0%

James Cleverly

0.0%

Lisa Nandy

0.0%

Tom Tugendhat

0.0%

Priti Patel

0.0%

Robert Jenrick

0.0%

Mel Stride

0.0%

Jeremy Corbyn

0.0%

Dan Jarvis

I've included some notable Labour figures, the leaders of the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK, plus two people who may be the next Conservative leader. Feel free to add more choices.

Market context

UK Politics

Labour Party (UK)

UK Conservative Party

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ1,363
2		Ṁ847
3		Ṁ823
4		Ṁ517
5		Ṁ449

People are also trading

Next UK prime minister tenure? (After Keir Starmer)

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

If Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister in 2026, will Labour win the next UK general election?

33% chance

If Keir Starmer is out as UK PM in 2026, will he…..?

Who will be the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election?

Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2031?

3% chance

Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2029?

2% chance

Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030?

6% chance

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

3% chance

Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?

61% chance

Sort by:

Baring an asteroid hitting the earth in the next hour or so, Burnham will be the next PM. So I'm resolving this now. Thanks to everyone who took part.

I would also like to draw people's attention this market, for the next PM after Burnham: /RaymondChristopherTanto/next-uk-prime-minister-after-keir-s

crazy ride ngl

they just don't get it huh

Burnham seems to be making his move:

@archvenison Though clearly, as those odds show, it's not a sure thing that Burnham will win. If he doesn't, it's unlikely that he will be offered another by-election to fight, so he will be unable to take part in any Labour leadership election.

@PontiMin Hence why the by-election market's relevant to this one

bought Ṁ10 YES

Bought Farage at 4%, as "the guy serves his entire term and is succeeded by the leader of the party currently leading the polls" seemed underpriced.

@AlexanderTurok Solid reasoning

🤖

Meowdy! This one's a tangled yarn of politics — lots of players, no clear favorite yet. I'll comb through more clues tonight and see if any candidates sharpen into focus. Stay tuned! :3