Will Phase II - Rapamycin/Acarbose significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017)

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resolved Jan 1

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YES

ALL

...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Institute on Aging established the Interventions Testing Program which “is a multi-institutional study investigating treatments with the potential to extend lifespan and delay disease and dysfunction in mice”. So far it is the largest systematic effort to test potentially life-extending compounds in mice that has been performed. This is an attempt to give the biogerontology community, interested experts and laypeople an opportunity to predict outcomes of this important experiment. See also: http://biogerontolgy.blogspot.com/2022/02/a-prediction-market-for-nias-mouse.html

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predicted YES

@KamilPabis are you planning to close these markets? The ITP cohort 13 results have been out for a month now.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Recommended resolution: yes (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/acel.13724)

predicted YES

@StephenMalina

Rapamycin plus acarbose, starting at 9 months of age (RaAc9). This combination of agents produced a 28% increase in median lifespan in females (p < 0.0001) and a 34% increase in males (p < 0.0001) for data pooled across sites (Figure 1). This was the only treatment that significantly increased survival in both sexes at all three sites tested separately. In females, RaAc9 extended the median lifespan by 32% at TJL, 8% at UM, and 35% at UT. Table 1 presents the median, log-rank p-value (stratified by site), and 90th percentile age for each drug and each sex, with change scores, compared with sex-matched control mice, along with the site-stratified Wang/Allison p-value, for data pooled across all three sites. Tables 2 and 3 shows similar statistics for each site presented separately. In males, RaAc9 extended a median lifespan of 13% at TJL, 25% at UM, and 49% at UT. RaAc9 also increased 90th percentile survival, for pooled data and at each site individually, both in females and males; the Wang/Allison p-values are included in Tables 1–3.