This market will resolve Yes if the REACH trial shows a significant (p<0.05) improvement in any of the cognative-related outcomes (secondary outcome measures 2-5) for the group treated with rapamycin, otherwise it will resolve No.
Details on the study can be found here: https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04629495
Preliminary analysis or paper-preprints will be sufficient to resolve the market (if conclusive), regardless of later publications. If no data or paper is published by the start of 2026, the market will resolve N/A.
Clarification on multiple comparisons: I will take the uncorrected p values and perform a Sidak correction for 4 comparisons so that overall alpha = 0.05, regardless of the main p-values the authors report.
1,000
3.00Secondary outcome measure 1 is "Central nervous system penetration of rapamycin" - i.e. that the drug can cross the blood-brain barrier. I don't think a drug should be counted as "improve Alzheimers" only because it can do this (there are many approved drugs that would satisfy this criteria).
It would also be good specify if you want low p-values after or before a correction for multiple comparisons and which correction would be used (plausibly the paper may report a correction across all outcomes but it might make sense to correct only for the outcomes relevant for this quesiton). You may decide to just use whatever p-values the authors report as primary, but then this market becomes substantially about guessing the author's statistical method (if no correction was performed, then the probability that at least one p-value will be low provided the drug does nothing is 1 - 0.95^5 ~= 23%, while with a family-wise correction it would be 5%)