This market will resolve Yes if the REACH trial shows a significant (p<0.05) improvement in any of the cognative-related outcomes (secondary outcome measures 2-5) for the group treated with rapamycin, otherwise it will resolve No.

Details on the study can be found here: https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04629495

Rapamycin - Effects on Alzheimer's and Cognitive Health - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov

Rapamycin - Effects on Alzheimer's and Cognitive Health - Full Text View.

Preliminary analysis or paper-preprints will be sufficient to resolve the market (if conclusive), regardless of later publications. If no data or paper is published by the start of 2026, the market will resolve N/A.

Clarification on multiple comparisons: I will take the uncorrected p values and perform a Sidak correction for 4 comparisons so that overall alpha = 0.05, regardless of the main p-values the authors report.