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Will Captopril significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017)
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...treatments that can decelerate the rate of aging are the only available path to significantly increase human lifespan going forward. Before drugs and treatments can be considered for larger clinical studies in humans, pilot trials in rodents must be performed as a necessary prerequisite. This is why the National Institute on Aging established the Interventions Testing Program which “is a multi-institutional study investigating treatments with the potential to extend lifespan and delay disease and dysfunction in mice”. So far it is the largest systematic effort to test potentially life-extending compounds in mice that has been performed. This is an attempt to give the biogerontology community, interested experts and laypeople an opportunity to predict outcomes of this important experiment. See also: http://biogerontolgy.blogspot.com/2022/02/a-prediction-market-for-nias-mouse.html
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This one has a published answer: Strong et al. 2022, Aging Cell (doi 10.1111/acel.13724) reports the C2017 cohort. Captopril at 180 ppm from 5 months raised median lifespan in the pooled three-site analysis by 6% in females (p = 0.002) and 14% in males (p = 0.001), with 90th-percentile gains in both sexes. The abstract itself calls the female effect significant but small (4 to 5%) and flags the male result as complicated by unusually short-lived controls at one site. 1,3-butanediol showed only a 2% female effect that disappears without that site. So resolution turns on whether a small but significant female effect counts. Every ITP row by compound, dose, sex and significance, with the dog-equivalent dose next to it, is in one table here (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/why-dogs.html?v=2

Do we know the correct resolution for this market?

predictedNO

Recommended resolution: No.

See tables 2 & 3 here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/acel.13724.

predictedNO

@StephenMalina should have said table 1...