Will Pierre Poilievre win Battle River-Crowfoot byelection?

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Jul 31

98.2%

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The market will be extended until the byelection is held. I may play.

Update 2025-05-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the byelection specified in the question is not held, the market will resolve to N/A.

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bought Ṁ134 YES

The riding voted 87% conservative in the federal election, it’s rural Alberta, probably the most staunchly conservative place in Canada

@ThomasPoltoranos do they like him as a person and as a leader?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Maybe not, but I seriously doubt they would flip Liberal

@ThomasPoltoranos maybe liberal not run, that kind of thing has been done

does this resolves "no" if the byelection doesn't happen?

@nikthink good catch. If the election is not held, will resolve N/A. I think it was implicit the byelection would be held. Hope this is not a problem.