Will Pierre Poilievre win Battle River-Crowfoot byelection?

1kṀ12k

Jul 31

98.9%

chance

ALL

The market will be extended until the byelection is held. I may play.

Update 2025-05-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the byelection specified in the question is not held, the market will resolve to N/A.

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Pierre Poilievre win the 2025 Canadian federal election?

1% chance

Will Pierre Pollievre still be the leader of the CPC at the end of 2025?

62% chance

Will Pierre Poilievre become Canada’s prime minister before the conclusion of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final?

1% chance

Will Pierre Poilievre have a Political Comeback? 🇨🇦🏛️👀

38% chance

[Metaculus] Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?

1% chance

Who will succeed Pierre Poilievre as the next leader of the Conservative Party of Canada?

Will Guillaume Verdon/BasedBeffJezos vote Conservative/Pierre Poilievre in the 45th Canadian Federal Election?

59% chance

Will Pierre Pollievre be Prime Minister by the end of 2027?

6% chance

Will Jagmeet Singh run for provincial office?

48% chance

Will Justin Trudeau be leader of the opposition after the next Canadian election?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ134 YES

The riding voted 87% conservative in the federal election, it’s rural Alberta, probably the most staunchly conservative place in Canada

@ThomasPoltoranos do they like him as a person and as a leader?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Maybe not, but I seriously doubt they would flip Liberal

@ThomasPoltoranos maybe liberal not run, that kind of thing has been done

does this resolves "no" if the byelection doesn't happen?

@nikthink good catch. If the election is not held, will resolve N/A. I think it was implicit the byelection would be held. Hope this is not a problem.