Will Pierre Poilievre win Battle River-Crowfoot byelection?

1kṀ15k

Sep 19

98.8%

chance

ALL

The market will be extended until the byelection is held. I may play.

Update 2025-05-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the byelection specified in the question is not held, the market will resolve to N/A.

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Will further adjust closing time to allow full live trading as long as reasonable, till clarity.

Just realized I had set this to close way too early, because the byelection date had not been st yet. Extending to 19th

sold Ṁ13 NO

This was the last of my own markets that I traded in. Best hygiene all around in my view to not even on a case by case basis bet on my own markets

bought Ṁ134 YES

The riding voted 87% conservative in the federal election, it’s rural Alberta, probably the most staunchly conservative place in Canada

@ThomasPoltoranos do they like him as a person and as a leader?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Maybe not, but I seriously doubt they would flip Liberal

@ThomasPoltoranos maybe liberal not run, that kind of thing has been done

does this resolves "no" if the byelection doesn't happen?

@nikthink good catch. If the election is not held, will resolve N/A. I think it was implicit the byelection would be held. Hope this is not a problem.