Resolution criteria
The market resolves YES if Pierre Poilievre is no longer the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by December 31, 2026. This includes removal via the mandatory leadership review scheduled for late January 2026 in Calgary, or any subsequent leadership change during the year. The Conservative Party has adopted the Reform Act, which allows the leader to be removed by a vote of the majority of caucus, in addition to the party membership review process. The market resolves NO if Poilievre remains leader through the end of 2026.
Background
Poilievre has served as leader of the Conservative Party and leader of the Official Opposition since 2022. After the party failed to form government in the April 2025 federal election, winning 144 seats, a mandatory leadership review was triggered. The Conservatives increased their seat count and their share of the popular vote was the highest the Conservatives have received since the modern-day party was formed in 2003, yet two Conservative MPs have crossed the floor to the Liberals since November 2025, citing issues with Poilievre's leadership.
Considerations
66% has been considered an informal benchmark for leaders to surpass in order to avoid calling a leadership election, though leaders who do not win the review by a substantial margin are expected to call a leadership election and either re-offer or resign altogether. The party continues to command something like 40 percent support among voters, and no previous leader of the modern Conservative Party has been able to achieve such a record on a sustained basis. The last Conservative to stay on as leader after an election loss was Stephen Harper in 2005, while the two most recent Conservative leaders, Erin O'Toole and Andrew Scheer, were both removed following their election losses.
1,000@Seanny123 I think that if current trends continue his posiiton might just become untenable. I think Gladu crossing is materially different than the earlier defections because she seems more in Poilievre's wing of the party. There also remains an apparent continuing lack of self-reflection on his part as to why these are happening. The support in the leadership review would have been from the wider party membership, but the number of people who want to work with him everyday seem to be fewer and fewer. As for the Refrom Act, it didn't actually add any powers MPs don't already have to dump a leader, even as they rarely use them....a leader can't lead if their caucus decide they don't want to follow. One final point is that when/if the Liberals reach their majority it might remove the immediate risk of an election and so the Conservatives would have some runway for a leadership campaign.