Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if Pierre Poilievre is no longer the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by December 31, 2026. This includes removal via the mandatory leadership review scheduled for late January 2026 in Calgary, or any subsequent leadership change during the year. The Conservative Party has adopted the Reform Act, which allows the leader to be removed by a vote of the majority of caucus, in addition to the party membership review process. The market resolves NO if Poilievre remains leader through the end of 2026.

Background

Poilievre has served as leader of the Conservative Party and leader of the Official Opposition since 2022. After the party failed to form government in the April 2025 federal election, winning 144 seats, a mandatory leadership review was triggered. The Conservatives increased their seat count and their share of the popular vote was the highest the Conservatives have received since the modern-day party was formed in 2003, yet two Conservative MPs have crossed the floor to the Liberals since November 2025, citing issues with Poilievre's leadership.

Considerations

66% has been considered an informal benchmark for leaders to surpass in order to avoid calling a leadership election, though leaders who do not win the review by a substantial margin are expected to call a leadership election and either re-offer or resign altogether. The party continues to command something like 40 percent support among voters, and no previous leader of the modern Conservative Party has been able to achieve such a record on a sustained basis. The last Conservative to stay on as leader after an election loss was Stephen Harper in 2005, while the two most recent Conservative leaders, Erin O'Toole and Andrew Scheer, were both removed following their election losses.