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MANIFOLD
If hindrance to AI development enacted, will Anti-Christ become manifest within 5 years?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ100
2031
31%
chance

If 2 countries with over 20 million population, or 3 countries with over 4 million population enact legislation (bodies whose enacted directives bind qualifying countries acting in such a way counts towards resolution), or the United Nations acts in a form including a declaration, resolution or other directive document, will Anti-Christ become manifest within 5 years, such that 3 church organizations with over 50 members, which are all under separate church hierarchies (ecumenical organisation membership or treaty adherence doesn't count) agree on who the Anti-Christ is, resolves YES. The clock for the 5 years begins to tick immediately as the document/legislative act is published, the ratification must happen within that 5 years if applicable.

Update: As of 16th July, at least the following countries qualify. Italy as a country with over 20 million population, and Finland with over 4 million population.

  • Update 2026-07-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): EU Artificial Intelligence Act implementation clarification:

    • EU countries that implement the EU AI Act will each count as separate countries toward triggering the clock

    • Country size thresholds from the original criteria still apply

    • The act must be implemented (not just passed) to count toward starting the clock

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Clarifying before anyone asks. EU Artificial Intelligence Act implemented by qualifying EU countries as defined above will count as separate countries for the purpose of starting the clock on this market, with the defined country sizes taken into account. But have to be implemented to count towards starting the clock.