Resolution criteria

This market is an independent multiple-choice market covering outcomes through December 31, 2039. Each answer resolves independently based on the state of global artificial intelligence infrastructure, public chatbots, and legal/regulatory status prior to January 1, 2040:

• "Yes, all AI infrastructure and chatbots will be completely abolished and rendered defunct due to the anti-AI movement before 2040." resolves YES if, before 2040, a coordinated legal, regulatory, or activist campaign results in the total shutdown, legal abolition, or physical dismantling of all major AI datacenters, public/commercial LLM deployments, and foundation model infrastructure globally, rendering them non-operational. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

• "No, AI technology will continue to operate and evolve, despite significant opposition and regulatory pressure from the anti-AI movement." resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2039, major commercial or open foundation models and enterprise AI infrastructure remain actively maintained, deployed, and functional in major economies. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

• "Partially, generative chatbots and public-facing AI may be banned or dismantled, but core enterprise and government AI infrastructure will remain." resolves YES if public-facing generative chat applications are broadly prohibited, decommissioned, or made unavailable to the general public across major jurisdictions (e.g., US, EU, G7) primarily due to political/social opposition, while back-end enterprise, scientific, or defense AI computing infrastructure remains active. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

Resolution will rely on consensus reporting from major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg) and legal/statutory records.

Background

Opposition to artificial intelligence spans multiple distinct factions:

• Labor, creative, and intellectual property groups: Authors, visual artists, voice actors, and unions (such as SAG-AFTRA and the WGA) have engaged in strikes, litigation, and regulatory lobbying targeting uncompensated training on copyrighted data and job displacement.

• AI safety and existential risk advocates: Organizations and researchers calling for moratoriums, international non-proliferation treaties, compute governance, or strict datacenter licensing regimes to prevent catastrophic or unaligned frontier models.

• Environmental and community opposition: Resistance to the construction of multi-gigawatt datacenters, power substation expansion, and localized water and energy consumption associated with training and running large models.

Current regulatory approaches (such as the EU AI Act and various US federal/state frameworks) focus primarily on risk tiering, transparency, copyright, and safety standards rather than wholesale abolition.