Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2050, 00:00 UTC, all major generative AI chatbots, models, and commercial/public AI computing infrastructures are permanently abolished, shut down, and defunct worldwide as a direct result of political, legal, activist, or regulatory anti-AI movements.

This market resolves to NO if on January 1, 2050, AI technology infrastructure and commercial or open-source chatbots remain operational, deployed, or under active public/commercial development, or if their cessation was caused primarily by unrelated catastrophic events (such as total societal collapse, global nuclear war, or non-anthropogenic extinction events) rather than an intentional anti-AI movement/ban.

• The threshold is high: the prompt specifies "all AI technology infrastructures and chatbots to abolish and defunct." Partial regulation, regional bans (e.g., within specific jurisdictions), or pauses on frontier training do not suffice for a YES resolution if major AI systems and infrastructure continue operating elsewhere.

• Resolution will be determined by consensus reporting across credible global news and scientific institutions (such as Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, or Nature).

Background

Public and philosophical pushback against artificial intelligence—often grouped under "neo-Luddism," the AI safety/alignment movement, creative copyright protests, or environmental backlash over data center energy and water consumption—has grown as models proliferate. Some activist groups and researchers have advocated for severe legal restrictions, international moratoriums, or a complete prohibition on training models beyond certain compute thresholds. However, AI infrastructure is deeply integrated into global enterprise, defense, scientific research, and consumer software, presenting significant technical, economic, and geopolitical barriers to a total worldwide shutdown.