At market close, I will generate a random* number U from a uniform distribution between 0 and 1. The market resolves YES if U is less than the final market price, and NO otherwise.
For example, if the market closes at 70%, I generate a random* number. If that number is 0.65 (less than 0.70), the market resolves YES. If it's 0.85 (greater than 0.70), it resolves NO.
* See resolution criteria for "random" number
Resolution: The "random number" will be deterministically based on the number of traders in the market. I will generate it with the following code:
import random
random.seed(num_traders)
x = random.random()
print(x)
I decided to test the outcomes of the random seeding using https://www.pythonmorsels.com/repl/ :
3 traders: 0.23796462709189137
4 traders: 0.23604808973743452
5 traders: 0.6229016948897019
6 traders: 0.793340083761663
7 traders: 0.32383276483316237
8 traders: 0.2267058593810488
9 traders: 0.46300735781502145
10 traders: 0.5714025946899135
11 traders: 0.4523795535098186
12 traders: 0.4745706786885481
13 traders: 0.2590084917154736
14 traders: 0.10682853770165568
15 traders: 0.965242141552123
16 traders: 0.36152277491407514
17 traders: 0.5219839097124932
18 traders: 0.18126486333322134
19 traders: 0.6771258268002703
20 traders: 0.9056396761745207