Random resolution market resolves YES by November 19, 2025
3
100Ṁ120
Nov 19
80%
chance
30

At market close, I will generate a random* number U from a uniform distribution between 0 and 1. The market resolves YES if U is less than the final market price, and NO otherwise.

For example, if the market closes at 70%, I generate a random* number. If that number is 0.65 (less than 0.70), the market resolves YES. If it's 0.85 (greater than 0.70), it resolves NO.
* See resolution criteria for "random" number

Resolution: The "random number" will be deterministically based on the number of traders in the market. I will generate it with the following code:
import random

random.seed(num_traders)

x = random.random()

print(x)

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Ṁ1,000
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I decided to test the outcomes of the random seeding using https://www.pythonmorsels.com/repl/ :
3 traders: 0.23796462709189137

4 traders: 0.23604808973743452

5 traders: 0.6229016948897019

6 traders: 0.793340083761663

7 traders: 0.32383276483316237

8 traders: 0.2267058593810488

9 traders: 0.46300735781502145

10 traders: 0.5714025946899135

11 traders: 0.4523795535098186

12 traders: 0.4745706786885481

13 traders: 0.2590084917154736

14 traders: 0.10682853770165568

15 traders: 0.965242141552123

16 traders: 0.36152277491407514

17 traders: 0.5219839097124932

18 traders: 0.18126486333322134

19 traders: 0.6771258268002703

20 traders: 0.9056396761745207

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