The Conservative Party of Canada is scheduled to host a vote on review of Pierre Poilievre's leadership during the party's convention in Calgary from January 29th to 31st, 2026. If the review's result is 50% or higher, this market will resolve to YES.
If no leadership review vote takes place by the end of Q1 2026, this market will resolve to N/A.
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@zsig I think in this leadership contest he doesnβt need over 50%, just majority. (As in if he gets 40% but two opponents get 30% each he would win).
I think itβs irrelevant though. Pierre is getting smashed, he has had one MP leave the party to cross the floor citing him as the problem, and another MP resign also citing him as a problem (the resignation triggers an election in that district, rather than the previous where the seat is handed over to the other party)
@Magnify this is not a leadership election; it's a review. there are only two options: oust poilievre or don't.
regardless, it's very unlikely he loses it straight up (i.e. less than 50%). that almost never happens. it's much more likely he gets a sufficiently low margin and decides to resign, which could also be described as not winning, hence my question.
@zsig That is how I imagined it. Unless there are some CPC bylaws I'm not aware of that dictate a different percentage than 50% for review, but I wasn't able to find anything about that quickly. You make a good point that he can 'win' the review in this sense, but still 'lose' by resigning. I will update to clarify.
His party is literally falling apart under him. Losing 2 MPβs is a death knell in his review
@Seanny123 he lost an election that seemed trivial to win. He lost his own seat. I'd be surprised if the lesson from this was to double down?