What happens if Biden wins 2024 elections? [unlinked, add your answers]
#2024 US Presidential Election#Joe Biden#Trump#Republican Party#Future US Presidents
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190
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2030
90%
The U.S. has a higher World Press Freedom Index in 2028 than 2024.
83%
Trump refuses to accept the result.
75%
Biden serves full second term
64%
Republicans win a majority in the Senate in 2026.
59%
Ukraine war reaches a ceasefire that is observed for 1 year
54%
Republicans win a majority in the House in 2026.
52%
The U.S.'s democracy index, as measured by the Economist Intelligence Unit, goes down by at least .1 from 2024 to 2028.
50%
He has a higher approval rating, according to 538, at the end of his second term than he did at the end of his first term. (if 538 stops existing, use the best available source instead)
50%
The S&P 500 will be above 5000 at the end of 2024
27%
Trump runs for president again in 2028.
13%
He gets impeached during his second term.
1.2%
Does not relinquish power at end of term, if still living

Answers resolve to YES or NO if the event clearly did or did not happen by the date specified in the answer (2030-01-01 by default). In case it is unclear or controversial whether the event happened, resolves N/A.

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