Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026?
25
148
แน€1k
2026
25%
chance

Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of the Moon, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2026 (and after 2023). For the purpose of this market, a flyby of the Moon must occur within a distance of no more than 100 thousand kilometers from its surface.

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To meet the criteria, the human aboard the spacecraft must remain awake for at least one continuous hour during the period when the spacecraft is within the 50 thousand kilometers threshold from the Moon. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute (prohibiting some, hypothetical, methods of stasis).

The safe return of the human passenger is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. The human must be alive as the spacecraft reaches the 50 thousand kilometers threshold from the Moon. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of crossing this threshold, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least one hour while the spacecraft remains under the specified distance from the Moon.

Additionally, the human on board must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body is permissible within the context of this question.

Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FullMoon2020.tif

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