Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before January 1, 2030, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officially appoints an individual to the position of Party Secretary for Taiwan. The appointment must be publicly announced through official CCP channels or state-controlled media. If no such appointment is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

The CCP's administrative structure includes Party Secretaries for various provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities within its jurisdiction. However, Taiwan is not under the CCP's control; it is governed by the Republic of China (ROC). Despite this, the CCP claims Taiwan as part of its territory and refers to it as Taiwan Province. Currently, there is no CCP-appointed Party Secretary for Taiwan, as the CCP does not exercise authority over the island.

Considerations

Appointing a Party Secretary for Taiwan would be a significant political move, implying a change in the CCP's approach to Taiwan. Such an appointment could be symbolic, aiming to assert sovereignty claims, or it could indicate a more aggressive stance towards unification. Observers should monitor official CCP communications and state media for any announcements regarding this position.