Will Xi Jinping choose a successor in 2032?

#China #Who does Xi think he is?#Chinese Politics #Xi Jinping #Xi Jinping Succession

244

Ṁ25

Ṁ90

2032

66%

chance

ALL

After the election of the 22nd Politburo Standing Committee of the CCP in 2032, will the consensus among Western China analysts be that Xi has chosen a successor?

Traditionally a successor would be chosen at the beginning of a General Secretary's second and final term, who would serve on the PSC. Xi did not make such an 'appointment' in 2017 or 2022.

I will assess the consensus after the National Congress of the Party in 2032, unless the below criteria is met:

If the market for 2027 resolves YES, this will resolve NO

https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/will-xi-jinping-choose-a-successor?r=Sm9zaHVhV2lsa2Vz

I will not bet in this market.

Will Xi Jinping choose a successor in 2027?

50% chance. After the election of the 21st Politburo Standing Committee of the CCP in 2027, will the consensus among Western China analysts be that Xi has chosen a successor? Traditionally a successor would be chosen at the beginning of a General Secretary's second and final term, who would serve on the PSC. Xi did not make such an 'appointment' in 2017 or 2022. I will assess the consensus after the National Congress of the Party in 2027. I will not bet in this market.

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bought Ṁ10 of YES

Hi! I love all these China watching markets. I've been putting some under the tag "Xi Jinping Succession". Feel free to use that too if you'd like.

@Ernie Thank you! Been meaning to get this series out for a while, I just knew it would be a fiddley few hours because it requires constant rechecking off the relationships between all the different committees and congresses.

I'll try to remember that tag for the future~

predicts YES

@JoshuaWilkes yeah. definitely. If I could make another very difficult request - would be awesome to have "next dalai lama" markets. will he reincarnate / announce he won't, will china offer up a fake, etc. etc. It's so complicated - but something very big will happen in this area in the next 5 years, and it would be great to get ahead of it.