Will China have a female leader before 2060?
12
40
Ṁ706Ṁ310
2059
42%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If the head of state and the de facto leader are two different people, as they sometimes have been before 1993, this question refers to the de facto leader (i.e., the most powerful person in the political system). If it is unclear or difficult to determine who that person is, this resolves N/A.
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Given that Xi seems to have turned the position into basically a lifetime appointment, likely he'll be sticking around for another 15yr or so, bringing us to 2040.
If his successor continues in that vein, they only need to hold out for another 20 years after that get into office, which seems quite doable.
Almost certainly that next appointee won't be a woman, implying that the probability on this market should be much lower.
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