Will Saudi Arabia and Israel establish diplomatic relations before 2025?
Dec 31

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Why is this market trending up? Realistically, this should have been at like 10% and stayed there since the war began, perhaps even going further down.

predicts YES

@Shump Saudi Arabia's incentives didn't really change due to the warn.

predicts NO

@Shai I disagree. Right now it would be political suicide to go towards an agreement for the Saudis. Even though they're not a democracy, this move will be dangerously unpopular. I don't think that's going to change soon

@Shump I think due to the threat of the Suez Canal the economic motivation for a collaboration between Israel, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia is grater. They just need to war to change course for diplomacy, and we have a full year for that.

predicts YES

The faster they condemn terrorism and make peace, the less suffering there will be. Time is running out.

bought Ṁ10 YES at 47%
predicts NO

I think it is unlikely considering everything that has been happening in the world lately especially with Israel and Palestine. Also considering that Saudi Arabia asked Netanyahu many times to ceasefire in Palestine so Arab civilians don't just get murdered paying for a mistake Hamas did. The Prince of the Royal Kingdom of Saudi mentioned how in 26 days, more than 10,000 innocent civilians lost their lives and more than 35,000 people injured and these numbers include children as well. I think the chances of diplomatic relations being is established between Israel and Saudi in 2025 is less 5%.

predicts YES

@AhmedHazemc68a 1) Support Hamas and jihadists 2) cheer, work, train and fight for them, house military infrastructure in schools etc 3) get killed 4) ??? 5) "10000 innocent civilians lost their lives"

Doesn't help: Hamas clumping militants and legit civilians into one number.

(Still feeling bad for the minority who really don't support terrorism.)

predicts YES

@ICRainbow Even non-innocent civilians don't deserve to die, it's true that a majority of Palestinians support 10/7 but that doesn't mean they should be killed. Fixing the educational system would be a good idea though.

bought Ṁ10 YES at 45%
predicts YES

I don't get why they don't want to get into this ASAP. Forming a strong coalition to counter Iran influence will make the region stable and more favorable for Palestinians. Heck, enter a military alliance with IL, kick Iran out and maybe then the walls may finally come down.

What am I missing here?

predicts YES

@ICRainbow Domestic pressure

predicts YES

@ElmerFudd Yeah, I don't get that. People are pressuring for "justice" or something, prolonging the suffering for those who they seek that thing?

How do they even know there's that pressure?

@ICRainbow Do you think it’s realistic that peace and prosperity will befall the Palestinians as soon as external influence is removed? The way I understand it Israel cannot simply annex Gaza and give 2.3 million Palestinians citizenship: the numbers are too big and it would be political suicide. Not to count the birth rates. Neither can they deport them all (where? Egypt won’t take them). I understand that a 2-state solution (or a 3-state solution) is also not happening anytime soon. So Gaza will continue being the biggest prison in the world. In this situation, external influences or not, some degree of armed resistance will continue. Given the asymmetry in capabilities, such armed resistance ends up targeting civilians (terrorism). I don’t see an easy way out.

predicts YES

@mariopasquato No, putting some kind of government there (that teaches a pro peace curriculum, and is backed by Israel, US, MBS etc) and putting the IDF but not the settlers.

predicts YES

@nathanwei Isn't this roughly the situation in the West bank minus the "not the settlers" part?

predicts YES

@mariopasquato We would want a more peace-seeking, more competent, and less kleptocratic government (not the useless and feckless PLO, which plays a double game coordinating with Israel against Hamas but paying martyr's payments etc) and without the settlers.

predicts YES

@nathanwei By saying “we” you mean that you live there?

predicts YES

@mariopasquato No, I don't live there. It's a way of expressing solidarity with my friends and family and colleagues in Israel though.

I've put in some limit orders, if anyone wants to give me action at 45%

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