Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES for the first Chinese orbital-class rocket stage to successfully land vertically.

The landing must be a controlled vertical descent to a surface (land or sea platform), not a parachute recovery or horizontal landing.

The same launch must successfully put a payload into orbit - no 'hops' or failures!

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the rocket manufacturer or Chinese space authorities confirming successful orbital flight and vertical landing.

Background

While China's progress is impressive, it still lags the United States, particularly SpaceX, which has launched more than 300 times. LandSpace and other Chinese firms are still testing prototypes. If LandSpace's planned orbital flight and first-stage recovery are successful, that would still place China a few years behind SpaceX.

Out of the Long March 12A, Zhuque-3, and Tianlong-3, LandSpace may fly China's first reusable rocket. One of the three launch vehicles will be China's first and the first outside the United States. LandSpace continues to develop the Zhuque-3 (ZQ-3), a two-stage reusable launch vehicle inspired by SpaceX's Starship and Super Heavy, with an inaugural flight test expected by the fourth quarter of 2025.

Considerations

Space Epoch has successfully completed the country's first sea-based vertical landing of a reusable rocket, with the test flight conducted from a floating platform in the Yellow Sea off the coast of eastern Shandong Province, involving the Yuanxingzhe-1 (YXZ-1) rocket. However, this was a suborbital test. The distinction between suborbital vertical landings (already achieved by multiple Chinese companies) and orbital-class vertical landings is critical for this market's resolution.