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MANIFOLD
Who will launch the first crewed Mars flyby mission, USA or China?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ63
2035
50%
USA (SpaceX, NASA, or any US entity)
14%
China (CNSA or any Chinese entity)
36%
Neither by end of 2035

Resolution criteria


Resolves to whichever party first launches a crewed spacecraft on a trajectory passing within ~50,000 km of Mars.


"USA" includes any US-based company (SpaceX, etc.) or public agency (NASA). "China" includes CNSA or any Chinese entity.


A landing is NOT required — a flyby trajectory with crew aboard at the time of launch is sufficient.


Resolved by launch date. If a landing mission flies by Mars en route, it counts as a flyby for this purpose.


Resolves NEITHER if no qualifying crewed mission launches before 23:59 UTC Dec 31, 2035.

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