Taiwan Presidential Election Result vs Armed Conflict with China in Following Term
Mini
8
แน7462027
1D
1W
1M
ALL
32%
DPP Win / Armed Conflict
4%
KMT Win / Armed Conflict
58%
DPP Win / No Armed Conflict
7%
KMT Win / No Armed Conflict
Armed conflict = a substantial military engagement
I will not bet in order to make this judgement, but as a rule of thumb one isolated incident of violence would not be enough to resolve YES
Resolves NA if TPP win
Get แน1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
KMT Lose Taiwan's Presidential Election > Armed Conflict With China During Next Presidential Term
28% chance
Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS?
Will China go to war with Taiwan before the DPP loses the Taiwanese presidency
31% chance
Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
28% chance
Conditional on the next US President being Democrat, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
22% chance
Taiwan-China Potential Conflict: which of these will happen first, before 2029? #2
DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? (Yes) โ Chinese Annexation of Half of Taiwan by 2050
49% chance
DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election? (No) โ Chinese Annexation of Half of Taiwan by 2050
49% chance
Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Who will win the 2028 Presidential Election?
Taiwan-China Potential Conflict: which of these will happen first, before 2029? #1