I will add parties/independents if any look to present a genuine challenge and eventually register for the campaign. Entries will be changed to correct names of individuals in late 2027.
If two parties form an alliance and field a P/VP combination ticket this will resolve 50/50 if they win.
(Note that if a party chooses someone from a different party as their VP candidate this isn't by itself enough, there would have to be a pact agreed by party leaders)
This is part of a series of 'long range' markets for the Taiwan 2028 Presidential Election, hopefully focused on questions that might bubble away over the next four years.
1,000I asked a few people in Taiwan about this, the general feeling is that the pendulum is swinging away from the DPP. There was skepticism towards the DPP winning 4 elections in a row, especially considering some of the domestic issues that will become easier to blame on the DPP over time.
In my opinion, the joint TPP/KMT ticket would have won had it not fallen apart at the last minute. The voters I talked to (who voted DPP) expressed fairly positive sentiment towards Hou as a candidate and dislike of Ko's vice presidential candidate - a Ko-Hou ticket probably would have won, and I doubt that the DPP's opposition will make the same mistakes again.
I think 49% for DPP is probably a little overpriced. I'd also be interested to hear about the resolution criteria if there is some joint KMT/TPP ticket.