KMT Lose Taiwan's Presidential Election > Armed Conflict With China During Next Presidential Term
Basic
3
Ṁ402027
28%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Armed conflict = a substantial military engagement
I will not bet in order to make this judgement, but as a rule of thumb one isolated incident of violence would not be enough to resolve YES
Resolves NA if KMT win
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Taiwan Presidential Election Result vs Armed Conflict with China in Following Term
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
33% chance
Will China go to war with Taiwan before the DPP loses the Taiwanese presidency
31% chance
Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
28% chance
Conditional on the next US President being Democrat, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
22% chance
Taiwan 2028 Long Range Market: Who will be the KMT Presidential Candidate?
China invades Taiwan during serious election civil conflict in the USA in Nov-Dec 2024
5% chance
[ACX 2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
1% chance
Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration?
9% chance
Will we see a coup attempt during or after the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?
1% chance