MANIFOLD
How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2026?
10
Ṁ175Ṁ1.1k
Dec 31
3.9 times
expected
11%
Above 5
8%
Above 10
5%
Above 15
1.7%
Above 20
1%
Above 25
1%
Above 30

ULA plans "plus or minus" 30 Vulcan launches between November 2025 and the end of 2026. How many will they actually launch in 2026?

A launch must be successful to count (this is ULA, after all - gotta hold them to a high standard!). A successful launch is defined as payload deployment success; it’s still a success if the payload itself (or the payload-provided dispenser) fails. All times are local pad time. If a launch lifts off before the end of 2026 but success is confirmed on January 1, it will still count.

ULA 2025 launch totals (as of 11/12/25): 1 Vulcan | 3 Atlas

https://x.com/BellikOzan/status/1988133505914859859

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy