How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2026?
11
Ṁ175Ṁ1.3kDec 31
4.2 times
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
27%
Above 5
3%
Above 10
1.3%
Above 15
1%
Above 20
1%
Above 25
1%
Above 30
ULA plans "plus or minus" 30 Vulcan launches between November 2025 and the end of 2026. How many will they actually launch in 2026?
A launch must be successful to count (this is ULA, after all - gotta hold them to a high standard!). A successful launch is defined as payload deployment success; it’s still a success if the payload itself (or the payload-provided dispenser) fails. All times are local pad time. If a launch lifts off before the end of 2026 but success is confirmed on January 1, it will still count.
ULA 2025 launch totals (as of 11/12/25): 1 Vulcan | 3 Atlas
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
New more granular market for those who prefer to live in reality: https://manifold.markets/table8473/how-many-times-will-vulcancentaur-l-S6R6zgtNhE
People are also trading
Related questions
How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2026?
-1.34
How many times will Electron launch in 2026?
9.5
How many Starship launches will occur in 2026?
How many times will New Glenn launch in 2026?
3.3
Will the Falcon 9 Family of rockets launch more times in 2026 than in 2025?
81% chance
How many times will SLS launch in 2028?