Will any of these 11 most popular conspiracy theories be proven true?

I'll be using this list for qualifying conspiracy theories:


I'll resolve this market YES if a consensus forms that any of these theories is broadly correct before the market resolution date. Otherwise I will resolve NO.

A longstanding wikipedia article stating that one of these things is true would resolve YES, though I'm open to large polls of experts or other standards for defining consensus.

I will not bet in this market.

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bought Ṁ100 YES


@Joshua The link now has 15 conspiracy theories. Which 11 count for this market?

How would the market resolve if it came to light that at least some of the mishandling of COVID was driven by a desire to get rid of excess undesirables?


I think that the most straightforward reading of "covid as population control" is that the virus was secretly designed and released with the intent of reducing the population.

predicts NO

If you asked me to give a percentage chance to each of those conspiracy theories being true, the only ones I wouldn't give a 0% to are:

  • CIA assassinated JFK - 10%
    Very unlikely, but after learning enough Latin American history, you start REALLY distrusting the CIA. I think the shooter was definitely Lee Harvey Oswald, with a 90% chance he was acting alone and a 10% chance the CIA was behind his actions somehow.

  • Princess Diana was murdered - 1%
    There's NO way the Royal Family could keep that under wraps, but I also don't trust the Royal Family as far as I could throw Buckingham Palace.

  • 9/11 was an inside job - 1%
    All signs point to Al Qaeda, and keeping this under wraps seems damn near impossible, but see above about distrusting the CIA. I think the most likely explanation for why the U.S. government didn't see 9/11 coming in time to stop it was the much more benign "the CIA, FBI, etc. were really bad at coordinating and sharing info with each other, and none of them had the full picture on their own."

  • Area 51 has living aliens - 1%
    Maybe it has alien technology like what the DoD whistleblower was talking about, but there's no way the government could keep living aliens a secret - at least not for very long. Part of the reason I bet NO is insurance on this one, since finding proof of alien life would be really cool and I'd be mostly glad to be wrong (though concerned about the aliens who were getting experimented on.)


edit: resolution criteria might be confusing such that these probabilities don't match what you would expect? (haven't looked closely, don't feel strong)

predicts NO

@evergreenemily I feel like "CIA let 9/11 happen and maybe blew up building 7 while they had the opportunity" should be around JFK but agree as to the rest

For 5 how inside job does it need to be? Would some people in the CIA knowing in advance and doing nothing be enough, for example? Or what about the Building 7 theories?


I think it would need to be one of the specific theories from the article:

"One of the most prevalent theories is that the administration of President George W. Bush “did” 9/11, or at least knew about it and let it happen because the administration wanted to go to war in Afghanistan and Iraq for oil. Many 9/11 theories branch out of the core conspiracy that 9/11 was an inside job. The “proof”? Supposedly, the Twin Towers could only have collapsed the way they did as a result of controlled demolition (this is false). Another favorite among conspiracy theorists: The Pentagon was not hit by a plane, but by a missile."

I can see how there's some debate as to whether the CIA counts as being part of the bush administration. Certainly one CIA analyst having some info suggesting the chance of attack and neglecting to pass it on doesn't count.

But I would resolve yes if the actual leadership of the CIA knew for a certainty that the attacks would happen and chose to not tell anyone or do anything to prevent them.

7. Top Democrats are behind a child sex ring

This is the only one i think could have some truth to it. It's possible that some high ranking democrats (and republicans) were having sex with minors provided by Epstein on the plane or the island.

But would that even be enough for a YES?

predicts NO

@nickten It seems disturbingly plausible that at least some U.S. politicians were engaging in that sort of stuff with Epstein (and some have certainly engaged in it in general - e.g. Dennis Hastert), but I don't think that #7 as defined by Teen Vogue counts as "true" unless Pizzagate itself is true, and the chance of that is roughly 0%.

So this is really difficult to buy into. I believe every conspiracy theory listed to be nonsense. However, the Area 51 one is basically written as “government secrets are there”. Being as it’s a military base, this feels like it could be proved at any point because military operations sometimes involve national secrets. Will this market resolve YES if any military secret is found? If you could limit it to time travel or extraterrestrials then I’d happily pump money into NO.

@Noit The comment below communicates to me that #10 is "Area 51 is home to lots of aliens" would be required to resolve yes.


The title of item 10 says Area 51 has "lots of aliens and government secrets" so it would need both of those to be true to count.

In case that article gets taken down at some point before 2030, the conspiracy theories are listed as:

1. Myths about the Holocaust 

2. The CIA had a hand in JFK's assassination

3. The moon landing was faked

4. Princess Diana’s death was no accident

5. 9/11 was an inside job

6. Mass shootings like Sandy Hook were “false flags”

7. Top Democrats are behind a child sex ring

8. The Earth is actually flat

9. COVID-19 as population control

10. Area 51 is home to lots of aliens (and government secrets)

11. There’s a hidden chamber filled with government secrets behind Mount Rushmore